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The impact of fire suppression, vegetation, and weather on the area burned by lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario

David L. Martell,a Hua Suna

aFaculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3B3, Canada.

Corresponding author

Published on the web 15 May 2008.

Received August 31, 2005. Accepted September 26, 2007.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2008, 38(6): 1547-1563, 10.1139/X07-210

Abstract

We describe the development of a statistical model of spatial variation in the area burned by lightning-caused forest fires across the province of Ontario. We partitioned Ontario’s fire region into 35 compartments, each of which is relatively homogeneous with respect to its vegetation, weather, and the level of fire protection it receives. We used linear regression and spatial autoregressive models to relate the average annual area burned in a compartment to its vegetation, weather, and level of protection attributes. We also examined the relationship between burned area and the level of protection in two areas that are relatively homogeneous with respect to vegetation and weather. We found a statistically significant relationship between the average annual fraction of the area of a compartment burned by lightning-caused forest fires and its vegetation, weather, and the level of fire suppression effort it receives.

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